All Macarthur state seats will be retained by the incumbent parties at the next election if Sportsbet odds are accurate.
The betting company released its odds for the March 2019 state election this week, and predicted that there would be no change in the Wollondilly, Camden, Campbelltown and Macquarie Fields seats.
Coalition candidate Nathaniel Smith – who intends to take the reigns from retiring Liberal MP Jai Rowell – is favoured at $1.02 to win the Wollondilly seat.
Wollondilly mayor Judith Hannan (independent) is next favoured at $16, followed by Labor candidate Jo-Ann Davidson ($21), Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party candidate Jason Bolwell ($31) and a possible Greens candidate at $51.
Mr Smith said he was not putting any stock in the Sportsbet odds.
“I’m running my campaign in a positive way and I’m not paying any attention to betting markets,” he said.
“That’s all I have to say on the matter.”
Across the way in Camden, Liberal MP Chris Patterson is the practically unbackable favourite at $1.01 odds of winning the seat.
Labor candidate Sally Quinnell is paying $14 while a potential Greens candidate would fetch $51 odds.
Mr Patterson said he couldn’t rely too much on Sportsbet’s figures.
“We’ve just come off a huge swing against the Coalition in the by-election at Wagga Wagga and as much as I’d like to think Sportsbet is the vault of all knowledge, they’re probably not,” he said.
“I’m not going to take this as gospel, there’s still a long way to go before the election.
“I’ll be watching the markets closely to see how the figures change as we get closer to the election.”
Mr Patterson, however, was surprised to find himself with such short odds.
“Perhaps that shows the people of Camden don’t do much betting,” he said.
“Maybe that’s not such a bad thing.”
Campbelltown MP Greg Warren is also paying $1.01 to retain his seat for the Labor Party.
No other candidates have yet been announced in Campbelltown, but Sportsbet predicts the likelihood of a Coalition win at $14 and a Greens win at $51.
“I was born on Melbourne Cup day in 1973, and I think Gala Supreme was $20 and ended up winning, so I’m not taking anything for granted,” Mr Warren said.
“I must say, I never really look at the odds, but I think it’s a great privilege to represent the people of Campbelltown and I can’t take that for granted, which some politicians might have done in the past.”
Next door in the Macquarie Fields seat, incumbent MP Anoulack Chanthivong is also predicted to retain his job with odds of $1.01.
Like Campbelltown, Macquarie Fields is fetching $14 for a Coalition win and $51 for a Greens win, even though no candidates have been announced.
“Gains and bets and odds are not really something I think about or care too much about to be quite honest,” Mr Chanthivong said.
“Being an MP is a privilege and not something I take for granted.
“This will not have any bearing on the work I do every day, which is to advocate for the people of Macquarie Fields.”
Sportsbet is tipping the Coalition will win 48 of the 93 NSW seats at next year’s election, with Labor to take 39, three seats to go to the Greens and another three to independent candidates.